The state assembly elections in Haryana and Indian-administered Kashmir delivered some unexpected results, proving many exit polls wrong.
While the Congress party and National Conference Party (NCP) alliance took the lead in Kashmir, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged strong in Haryana.
Kashmir’s Surprising Outcome
Congress-NC Alliance Dominates
- Exit polls had predicted a tight race, but the Congress-NC alliance is now on track for a significant victory in Kashmir’s 90-member assembly.
- This election was the first in a decade for Kashmir and the first since 2019 when the federal government removed the region’s special status and transformed it into a federally-governed territory.
Voter Turnout and Sentiments
- A notable voter turnout reflected dissatisfaction with the 2019 constitutional changes.
- Political analyst Sheikh Showkat Hussain observed that voters were sending a message against the BJP’s 2019 revocation of Article 370.
- Noor Mohammad Baba, another analyst, added that the results indicate the unpopularity of BJP’s policies in Kashmir.
People’s Democratic Party’s Decline
- The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, struggled with only three seats.
- Mufti acknowledged the results, noting that voters saw the Congress-NC alliance as a path to stability and opposition to the BJP.
Haryana’s Unexpected BJP Triumph
Defying Predictions
- Most exit polls had forecasted a Congress landslide in Haryana, but the BJP is on track to return for a third term.
- Political scientist Sandeep Shastri noted that Congress may have “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory” due to overconfidence and infighting between senior leaders Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja.
Key Factors in BJP’s Success
- BJP overcame strong anti-incumbency sentiments by focusing on local issues and forming social coalitions across caste groups.
- Shastri pointed out that BJP’s focus on grassroots issues and a unified front helped counter the Congress’s internal conflicts.
Controversy Surrounding Election Results
- Congress raised concerns about delays in vote-count updates on the Election Commission’s website.
- Congress leader Kumari Selja expressed hope for a favorable outcome despite the delays, though current numbers indicate a BJP victory.
National Impact of These Results
The outcomes in both Kashmir and Haryana have implications for upcoming state elections in India, including Maharashtra and Delhi. Analysts believe these elections set the tone for the future political landscape and reflect the voters’ response to BJP’s national policies.
Conclusion
These surprising election results in Kashmir and Haryana emphasize the importance of local issues and underline the limitations of exit polls in capturing ground realities. The outcomes suggest that while BJP retains strongholds like Haryana, regions like Kashmir remain resistant to its policies.
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